CHAPTER 2 ~  SUSTAINABILITY  OF  OUTPUTS  OF  THE  WORLD'S  FOREST  LANDS ~

Note: The data found below represent a sampling of a far larger collection of data compiled in "Forest Degradation: A Global Perspective," found on this same website.

~ TABLE OF CONTENTS ~

A

ELEMENTS OF NON-SUSTAINABILITY

B

SOME BASIC DATA

C

VIOLATIONS OF SUSTAINABLE YIELDS OF WOOD ~ [C1]~ Global, [C2]~ North America, [C3]~ Southeast Asia, [C4]~Africa, [C5]~Asian Sub-Continent

D

SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES RELATED TO FOREST PLANTATIONS

E

WOOD PRODUCTIVITY PROBLEMS RELATED TO GLOBALIZATION

F

CONVERSIONS OF FOREST LAND TO OTHER USES ~ [F1]~ Global, [F2]~ Africa, [F3]~ Latin America, [F4]~ Southeast Asia, [F5]~North America, [F6]~ Central Asia

G

ILLEGAL TIMBER HARVESTS AND CONVERSIONS OF FOREST LANDS ~ [G1]~ Global, [G2]~ Southeast Asia, [G3]~Central Asia, [G4]~ Eastern Asia, [G5]~ Latin America, [G6]~ Oceania, [G7]~ Africa, [G8]~ Asian Sub-Continent, [G9]~ North America

H

FOREST FIRE DATA AND FOREST SOIL LOSS

CLIMATIC AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CONVERTING FOREST LANDS TO OTHER USES

J

SHIFTING CULTIVATION IN TROPICAL RAINFORESTS

K

SUMMARY OF KEY SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES AFFECTING THE WORLD'S FORESTS

~

References (df8.html)

Go to Table of Contents of this Entire  Document on Sustainability Issues (in the Introductory Chapter)
Go to home page of this website ~
Go to Introductory Chapter of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability - Definitions, Context, Politics, History and its Role in the Evolution of Human Cultures")
Go to Chapter 1 of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability of the Outputs of the World's Soils and Croplands")
Go to Chapter 3 of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability of the Outputs of the World's Grazing Lands")
Go to Chapter 4 of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability of the Outputs of the World's Irrigated Lands and Freshwater Supplies")
Go to Chapter 5 of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability of the Outputs of the World's Fisheries")

Section [A] ~ ELEMENTS OF NON-SUSTAINABILITY ~

About 37% of the world's 90 or so million km2 of reasonably biologically productive land is forested (World Commission on Forests report of 1999). The FAO's Global Wood Supply Model [Ref. (98B3) of (03M1)] estimates that around 48% of global forests are available for wood supply. The remainder is legally protected or physically inaccessible, or otherwise uneconomic for wood supply. The Earth's forests are vanishing at a rate of roughly 150,000 km2/ year. Most of this is in the tropics. Much of this loss reflects conversion to other uses, e.g. croplands. Efforts to save most of the world's (tropical) rainforests are doomed to failure and should be abandoned (Statement by 12 experts in tropical forestry at the European Commission's Joint Research Center). Hagler's estimate of the sustainable productivity of fuelwood and industrial wood from the world's forests is 3.7 billion m3/ year (96N1). Around 1991 global wood harvests were over 3.4 billion m3/ year (93D2) (UNFAO data). Growth in wood consumption is well in excess of 1%/ year, so by now any surplus wood-producing capacity of the world's forests has, at best, vanished. This may sound encouraging at first glance, but caution must be exercised. Wood output figures include only wood that is harvested legally and sold in the marketplace. In many - probably most - developing world countries, government corruption and private theft are responsible for on the order of 50-85% of the total wood harvest (06F1) (93D2). (Also see Section [G] below.) Also, in most forests of the developing world, wood harvesters take (and pay for) only the very best trees, leaving the largest portion of the cut trees to rot. For example, commercial loggers in Central Africa take only the best trees - 1200-1300 m3/ km2 logged - 1/3 as much as typical harvests in Southeast Asia (94C2) where timber harvests are done more efficiently. The FAO's projection of global timber outputs from 1998 to 2030 (03M1) showed no indication that it was aware of either of these facts. The estimate of sustainable productivity probably assumes the harvest efficiency to be that typical of that in the developed world - at least several times larger than that in most of the developing world. Also much, if not most, of the world's fuelwood harvest is by people in the developing world gathering their own firewood informally rather than buying it in the marketplace. Thus the actual wood harvests from the world's forests are certain to be significantly larger than either the 3.4 billion m3/ year harvest figure or the 3.7 billion m3/ year sustainable yield figure mentioned above. Less than 0.1% of tropical wood harvesting is considered to be sustainable (90R1) (90R2) (98A2). Older data give 3% of the world's tropical forests as under management plans that may secure their future productivity (80R1). Implementation of sustainable forest management would result in a decrease in harvest volume of 10-25% in Canada's boreal zone, and by 30-40% in the temperate rainforests on the coast in British Columbia (99N1). (Sustainable forest management is required by law in Canada, but this law has never been enforced.)

The FAO states that trees planted outside the forest, around the farm or household or on boundaries, roadsides and embankments will continue to be an extremely important and under-estimated source of wood supplies (03M1). This statement seems implausible. Timber companies reject such wood because of the high risk of nails etc. that can damage very expensive saw blades. Also, harvesting small, isolated groups of a few trees tends not to be economical. Also trees growing outside a forest environment tend to grow with crooked trunks because the sunlight they receive tends to come from all directions, not just from above, because of a lack of competition from neighboring trees.

(Fuel Wood) An estimated 55% of global wood production is used as fuelwood (03A1). The number of developing world people facing fuel-wood deficits was about 3 billion around 1990, up from 1.5 billion in 1980 based on UNFPA estimates (91U8). Obviously the current figure would be far larger. As many as 100 million fuelwood consumers already experience virtual fuelwood famine (FAO data) (99A1). Three billion people in the world depend on fuel-wood for almost all their household energy. About 1.5 billion of these people cannot obtain fuel-wood without over-cutting tree stocks. This total is expected to rise to 2.5 billion by 2010 (96M2). Nearly 75% of the increase in wood demand during 1980-90 is attributed to local population growth (91U8). For many of the developing world's major cities the deforested area surrounding these cities is over 100 miles in radius - and growing. This causes fuelwood harvesting costs and fuelwood and charcoal prices to increase. Even in the 1980s, developing world working-class families typically spent 20-40% of their incomes to buy wood or charcoal (88P1), being unable to compete with developed world consumers in the global marketplace for fossil fuels. One should also consider the large-scale migration of developed world agriculturalists from rural to urban areas and the resultant switch from firewood fuel to charcoal fuel. In traditional charcoal making, 50% of primary wood energy is lost. So every villager and agriculturalist who moves to the city becomes (in energy terms) two people (Ref. 24 of Ref. (88P1)). Those still gathering their own fuel can spend several hundred woman-days/ year at this task as the deforested areas surrounding towns in developing nations expand (81F1). Despite the above data, and despite the 30-40% increase in global population expected by 2030, the FAO projection of fuelwood consumption out to the year 2030 (03M1) estimates that fuelwood consumption will be lower than the 1995 FAO forecast (95A5), while the fuelwood supply situation "looks more promising (03M1)."

The FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 (01F1) contends that in the past decade, developing countries such as Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Algeria and the Gambia have reversed deforestation, and are expanding net forest area. Also, for more than a decade, developing countries such as China, India, the Libyan Arab Jamahariya, Turkey and Uruguay have had plantation establishment in excess of annual deforestation. This information seems suspect. And even if it were true, sustainability would not be achieved because the net change in timber volume achieved by such reforestation projects would still be very negative. In developing nations, the overwhelming cause of deforestation is for fuel wood. Forests cannot be protected from fuelwood gatherers. In China the overwhelming fraction of reforestation projects fail due to poor soil conditions or to peasants pulling up tree sprouts for use as fuel (75E2) (76E1) (76E2). Reforestation projects in developing nations are also abandoned as a result of being invaded by disenfranchised squatters. The large-scale growth and migration of deserts in China, and the huge growth in the number of intercontinental dust storms originating in China, are generally attributed to deforestation and overgrazing. A 2001 survey by China's State Forestry Administration found that 28% of China's land mass has been overtaken by desert, with 18% being decimated by effects of overgrazing and deforestation (China Daily reports [1/31/02]). This seems incompatible with any sort of image of sustainable forest management in China. There is little reason for believing that the situation in the other countries listed is likely to be different. See Sections (4-B) and (4-C) in "Forest Land Degradation: A Global Perspective" in this website to get a better picture of the massive scale of deforestation in developing nations.

(Side-Effects of non-sustainable wood harvesting) One should be careful also not to count the cost of non-sustainable rates of wood harvesting purely in terms of the availability and price of wood. One must also consider other, more peripheral costs. Some of these are: [1] erosion and degradation of croplands at the base of once-wooded hillsides, [2] siltation of dam-backwaters and irrigation systems, [3] water quality degradation, [4] reduced rainfall, [5] floods and landslides, [6] collapses of civilizations, [7] desertification (e.g. abandonment of thousands of villages in the developing world and threats to major urban areas), [8] increased deaths and destruction from Tsunamis (as a result of elimination of shoreline mangrove forests) and [9] replacement of scarce fuelwood by animal dung, resulting in reduced soil organic matter, nutrient-mining in cropland soils and reduced food productivity. All this creates sustainability problems in other aspects of the global food supply system. Deforestation and soil erosion were factors in almost every civilization collapse studied by Jared Diamond in his book (04D1).

(Invasive Species) One reason for suspecting that the above estimate of sustainable global forest productivity may be optimistic is that the effects of globalization are making international travelers of an ever-increasing number of foreign pests ("invasive species") that have no predators where they land. As a result, all kinds of trees are dying at the hands of new pests. Grazing lands, fisheries, and croplands all face this same problem. The cost of the worldwide damage from invasive species is estimated at $400 billion a year ("Alien Species 'Cost Africa Billions' - Water Hyacinth Forms Vast Green Mats 2/5/03 BBC News). This $400 billion/ year is somehow divided up among the world's croplands, forests, grazing lands and fisheries. The problem is made even worse by the cowardice of the US Department of Agriculture. To avoid conflicts in the World Trade Organization, the USDA refused to set strong standards to prevent introduction of tree-eating invasive pests. Now the Asian long-horned beetle threatens to destroy US sugar maples (97S2).

(Land Reallocation) The world's forests are being converted to grazing lands, croplands and urban lands at a rapid rate. They are also being buried in the backwaters of new dams. This must cause any estimate of sustainable productivity of the world's forests to shrink from year to year. This shrinkage is primarily in the developing world. During 1970-90, Latin Americans converted over 200,000 km2 of tropical moist forest to cattle pasture (100,000 in the Brazilian Amazon, 15,000 in the Colombian Amazon, and 5000 in the Peruvian Amazon) (91D1). Ranching accounts for 60% of tropical forest loss in Mexico (97R1). In the developed world, forests are expanding into croplands that have been so badly degraded that they had to be abandoned, e.g. in former New England potato monocultures and in the former cotton monocultures of the southeastern US. The magnitude of forest expansion in the developed world is far less than the magnitude of forest shrinkage in the developing world.

(Forest Plantations Sustainability Issues) Tree plantations would appear to offer considerable potential for expanding global wood productivity especially considering the rapid expansion of the world's forest plantations, mainly in the tropical soils of developing nations. The potential wood productivity of forest plantations greatly exceeds that of natural forests. However tree plantations probably worsen firewood shortages in developing nations since they transfer land away from being part of the "Commons" (local firewood-gathering places). There are also serious questions as to whether tropical soils can supply, sustainably, the greatly increased nutrient flows and groundwater supplies needed by fast-growing plantation tree species (96N2) (96T1) (98M1). (About 90% of tropical soils are far less productive than temperate soils by virtue of their low organic matter content - that also makes them more erosion-prone.) Tropical soils are notoriously nutrient-poor, and require nutrient recycling via decaying vegetation (or leguminous crops such as soybeans). For example, Most tropical croplands last only three or so years before they must be abandoned for 20 years to allow for nutrient replenishment (thus the term "shifting cultivation"); most tropical grazing lands must be abandoned (fallowed) after 5-10 years. Such environments seem hardly to be the place for fast-growing tree species - unless they happen to be leguminous trees, as a few species are. This author's review of the global literature covering several decades found a number of documents suggesting declining forest plantation productivities from harvest cycle to harvest cycle, but no research suggesting a non-declining cycle-to-cycle wood productivity in tropical forest plantations. There is also a local-employment problem associated with forest plantations. If the entire world's roughly 33 million km2 of forests (over a third of the world's supply of biologically productive land) were converted to pulp plantations, local employment would be provided for only 20 million people (0.4% of the developing world's population) (Worldwatch, 11(2) (1998)). Like virtually all large-scale monocultures, forest plantations are highly susceptible to disease- and pest outbreaks, so they require heavy applications of insecticides, fungicides and herbicides to prevent invasion of competing vegetation. New Zealand's plantation managers have used over 30 different pesticides, including highly toxic organo-chlorines that are usually broadcast from aircraft (98M1).

(Shifting Cultivation and Forests) If one is looking for the most non-sustainable use of forestland, nothing beats the present-day use of tropical rainforest for shifting cultivation (slash-and-burn agriculture). 55% of global deforestation is caused by slash-and-burn agriculture. This is not to say that shifting cultivation is an intrinsically non-sustainable process. It certainly can be sustainable if rules about fallowing are followed. Unfortunately these rules are being violated to an extreme degree almost everywhere there is a tropical rainforest. The human carrying capacities of lands under shifting cultivation (typically tropical rainforest) are, at most, ten people/ km2 under subsistence levels (84G1) (World Bank data). This implies a carrying capacity of the 3 million km2 of land under shifting cultivation of 30 million people. Compare this to the 1980 population of shifting cultivators of 250 million (80U1). The typically rapid population growth in the developing world would suggest a current (2000) population of shifting cultivators of perhaps twice that, and perhaps twice as much forest land under shifting cultivation. If all tropical forestland with poor soil (roughly 90% of 17.6 million km2 of open- plus closed tropical forest) were devoted to shifting cultivation, the carrying capacity of this land would be 158 million people. This is 32% of the estimated current population of shifting cultivators (500 million).

Instead of cropping a plot for three years and abandoning it for 20 years (the time needed by tropical soils to regain productivity), shifting cultivators must now return to fallowed plots after a fallow time of only 3-10 years, reducing long-term and short-term soil productivity with each cycle. Eventually the combination of falling soil productivity, population growth, rapid conversions of tropical forest to grazing lands and forest plantations, and the lack of good quality undeveloped land suitable for agriculture is forcing ever-increasing numbers of shifting cultivators to farm steep, rocky, thin-soiled hillsides where sustainable agriculture is all but impossible. From there they migrate to rapidly expanding slums ringing most urban areas in tropical countries where they become a part of the "informal" economy. (Employment per acre of grazing lands and forest plantations is a tiny fraction of that for the garden plots of shifting cultivators.) These tropical slums, full of poverty, hunger and hope-deprivation, create unstable social, political and economic conditions that make the developing world an unsafe environment for financial and human capital -- ingredients that are essential for escaping the abject wretchedness that characterizes so much of the developing world. These slums also generate the armed conflicts and terrorism that cost the developed world so dearly in terms of military costs of peacekeeping and counterproductive efforts to combat terrorism (08S1).

(Illegal Timber Harvests) The inability of developing world governments to control large-scale illegal logging makes sustained-yield forestry all but impossible in the developing world. (Estimates of the fraction of the developing world's forest being managed sustainably vary between 0.1% and 3% (80R1) (90R1) (90R2) (98A2).) A lot of information on illegal logging is compiled in Section [G] of this document. More data are found in Chapter 6, Section [E] of "Forest Lands Degradation: A Global Perspective" that can be found on this website.

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Go to Introductory Chapter of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability - Definitions, Context, Politics, History and its Role in the Evolution of Human Cultures") 

Section [B] ~ SOME BASIC DATA ~

Hagler estimates that the world's 20.7 million km2 of "available" forests can support a sustainable long-term harvest of 3.7 billion m3 (under bark) of fuelwood and industrial woods (38% coniferous and 62% hardwood) (Hagler, 1995, in Ref. (96N1)). Hagler's estimate of the "closed forest" area of the world is 38 million km2. Be careful not to compare this 3.7 billion m3 figure with harvest rates, because these rates do not count a huge amount of illegally harvested timber in developing nations. Nor do these rates include fuelwood harvested by fuelwood consumers directly - probably a significant fraction of fuelwood harvested in developing nations.

An estimated 55% of global wood production is used as fuelwood (03A1). Tropical countries account for more than 80% of global fuelwood consumption (03A1). Fuelwood production accounts for over 1.7 billion m3/ year, 55%, of the annual global wood harvest (03M1). This would suggest that the annual global wood harvest is 3.1 billion m3/ year.

The growth rate of useable timber in natural forests is 100-300 m3/ km2/ year (97S1).

Nearly 20% of humanity is dependent on forests for part or all of their livelihoods (06F1).

Some Pulpwood Growth Rates (98M1) (m3/ km2/ year). (Pulpwood grows faster the closer to the equator you get. Grain productivities show the opposite behavior.)

300-500

eastern Canada

1000

southern US

2500

Indonesia

3000-4000

Brazil

During an 80-100-year rotation, average MAI (Mean Annual Increment) of native eucalypt forests in Australia range from 100 m3/ km2/ year in low-quality mixed-species stands to 800 m3/ km2/ year in better quality forests (96N2). These rotation lengths suggest sawtimber production, not pulpwood.

The Amazon Basin accounts for more than 50% of the world's tropical forestlands (02U3).

The first report of the World Commission on Forests, following 3 years of research, found:

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Section [C] ~ VIOLATIONS OF SUSTAINABLE YIELDS OF WOOD ~ [C1]~ Global, [C2]~ North America, [C3]~ Southeast Asia, [C4]~ Africa, [C5]~ Asian Sub-Continent,

Part [C1] ~ Global ~

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Part [C2] ~ North America ~

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Part [C3] ~ Southeast Asia ~

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Go to Introductory Chapter of this Sustainability Document ("Sustainability - Definitions, Context, Politics, History and its Role in the Evolution of Human Cultures") 

Part [C4] ~ Africa ~

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Part [C5] ~ Asian Sub-Continent ~

Ref. (84E1) reports that the Khumbu Valley (Nepal) has been deforested over the past three decades due to firewood gathering. 95% of Nepal's felled trees wind up in stoves (87K1).

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Section [D] ~ SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES RELATED TO FOREST PLANTATIONS ~

Forest Plantation growth rates in selected countries (97S1) (m3/ km2/ year).
(Comments: These are clearly pulpwood - cellulose fiber -- growth rates, not sawtimber growth rates. The rate given for natural forests usually pertains to sawtimber, making comparison meaningless.)

Southern US

1200

(Southern pine)

Iberia

1100-1200

(Eucalyptus)

South Africa

2500

(Eucalyptus and Acacia)

Brazil

1500-4000

(Eucalyptus and pine)

Argentina

1500-3000

(pine)

Chile

2000

(pine)

New Zealand

2000

(pine)

Indonesia

1500-2500

(Acacia and eucalyptus)

natural forests

100- 300

(all species)

A 1999 report from the World Commission on Forests and Sustainable Development suggested that it would be possible to meet the world's demand for pulpwood in 2050 with 1 million km2 of fast-growing plantations (99A2). The sustainability of tropical forest plantations of fast-growing tree species growing on typically low fertility tropical forests is open to serious doubt.

It takes 15 years to grow pine large enough to cut for pulp in Alabama. Rotations of eucalyptus for pulp in Brazil can be as short as 6-8 years. Pulp productivities per unit area of forest in Brazil can exceed those in Nordic countries by 16 times (98M1).

Industrial roundwood production from forest plantations is expected to at least double during the next 30 years, from the current 400 to around 800 million m3/ year. By 2030, forest plantations are expected to supply about a third of all the world's industrial roundwood (03M1).

The average productivity of existing forest plantations, worldwide, is estimated at 6.6 m3/ ha/ year (18 in New Zealand, 14 in Brazil, 4 in eastern Canada, 10 in the Southeastern US, 25 in Indonesia, 30 in Brazil's newer plantations). (Forest productivities tend to increase the nearer to the Equator the land is - the opposite of grain.) (00F2).

Forest growth in plantations is expected to increase global wood supply by 0.1 billion m3/ year, although plantation wood productivities tend to be less that expected, often by a significant amount (96N1).

Growing "miracle trees" in tropical soils is discussed in Ref. 14 of Ref. (84G1). These trees deplete soil nutrients and water, and yields drop dramatically after one harvest - as is the case for croplands and grazing lands in most tropical forests. Examples of such "miracle trees" include gmelina- or Caribbean pine on 7-12-year rotations, and eucalyptus on 15-25-year rotations. For comparison, teak takes 60-80 years to mature (84G1).

New forest plantation areas are being established globally at the rate of 45,000 km2/ year, with Asia and South America accounting for more (area of) new plantations than the other regions (01F1).

For the 1990's as a whole, it was estimated that about 30,000 km2/ year of new forest plantations were successfully established globally (01F1).

The UN FAO projects that the current 1.13 million km2 of forest plantations (in 2000) could increase to 1.45 million km2 in 2030 (UNFAO, "Forest Resources Assessment 2000" [4/10/01] www.fao.org/forestry/fo/fra/index.jsp).

Of the estimated 1.87 million km2 of forest plantations worldwide in 2000, Asia had by far, the largest areas in forest plantation development (01F1).

Natural forests are estimated to constitute about 95% of global forests, while plantation forests constitute around 5% (03M1). However, forest plantation area doubles about every 15 years, while natural forest areas are shrinking.

Forest plantations cover less than 5% of the world's forested areas, but they account for 20% of current wood production (03U2). "Current wood production" probably neglects family-scale firewood gathering, illegal wood harvests and other non-economic wood harvests. Thus the 20% figure is probably an over-statement.

In the past 15 years, the total area of tree plantations has doubled, globally, and is predicted to continue at this rate (98A2).

In Chile and New Zealand, radiata pine (plantation) grows 2500 m3/ km2/ year. Loblolly pine in the southern US grow at 1250 m3/km2/ year. Comparable hardwood species in Sweden grow at a rate of 500 m3/ km2/ year (99A2). These plantation figures probably refer to pulpwood production, not sawtimber.

During a 30-40-year rotation, an average MAI (Mean Annual Increment) in radiata pine plantations (in Australia?) of 2000-3000 m3/ km2/ year is common (96N2).

In Brazil, for stem-wood production of rosegum trees on 8-12-year rotations, it was estimated that the yield of the second crop of trees is likely to be substantially reduced because of an insufficient supply of potassium. Even adding 20 tonnes of potassium/ km2 to the first rotation (twice the optimum needed level) still leaves the soil with insufficient levels of "available" potassium to sustain productivity in the next crop (96N2).

There are, to date, no reported large-scale- or commercial plantations of genetically modified trees (03M1).

Plantation yields are often as much as 50% below initial expectations (FAO data). Single-species plantations do not allow for biodiversity of flora or fauna. But in spite of the high degree of failure of forest plantations throughout the World, the World Bank has paid out $1.42 billion to fund plantations in the past two years. In the past decade the World Bank has financed the establishment of over 29,000 km2 of forest plantations. The World Bank plans to fund the establishment of over 10,000 km2 of additional plantations (96G1).

In tropical forests, the bulk of available nutrient elements is bound in the biomass (leaves, twigs, branches, trunks, roots, etc.) and is tightly conserved in a closed nutrient cycle (75S2). Translation: Tropical soils are extremely poor in plant nutrients, except for the dead plant litter on the surface of the soil. In typical logging operations this litter is removed from the area.

The rate of plantation establishment in the late 1990s was 45,000 km2/ year worldwide. For the 1990's as a whole, however, it was estimated that about 30,000 km2/ year of forest plantations were successfully established, half of which constitute reforestation of previously forested lands. There were no significant transitions from plantations into natural forests, or conversions (of plantations) into agricultural lands (01F1).

No soil on Earth (especially tropical soils) can tolerate the magnitude of nutrient depletion represented by plantations of fast-growing tree species (98M1). Tropical soils store the bulk of their nutrients in their living- and dead vegetation. Removal of timber, like removal of crops, like removal of grass (in grazing of domestic animals), cannot be sustained without long periods (2-3 decades) for recovery of nutrients from deep in the sub-soils after 2-3 years of cropping, or 5-10 years of grazing.

Like virtually all large-scale monocultures, forest plantations are highly susceptible to disease- and pest outbreaks, so they require heavy applications of insecticides, fungicides and herbicides to prevent invasion of competing vegetation. New Zealand's plantation managers have used over 30 different pesticides, including highly toxic organo-chlorines - which are usually broadcast from aircraft (98M1).

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Section [E] ~ WOOD PRODUCTIVITY PROBLEMS RELATED TO GLOBALIZATION ~

The cost of the worldwide damage from invasive species is estimated at $400 billion a year ("Alien Species 'Cost Africa Billions' - Water Hyacinth Forms Vast Green Mats, BBC News [2/5/03]).

To avoid conflicts in the World Trade Organization, the US Dept. of Agriculture refused to set strong standards to prevent introduction of tree-eating invasive pests. Now the Asian long-horned beetle, a recent arrival, threatens to destroy US sugar maples (97S2).

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Section [F] ~ CONVERSIONS OF FOREST LAND TO OTHER USES ~ [F1]~ Global, [F2]~ Africa, [F3]~ Latin America, [F4]~ Southeast Asia, [F5]~ North America, [F6]~ Central Asia, ~ 

Part [F1] ~ Global ~

According to a remote sensing survey (01F1), during the 1990s, most conversion of (tropical) forestlands were into agriculture (croplands), pastures and shifting agriculture.

A good part of the world's 38,000 km2/ year net increase in cropland area during 2000 to 2030 will probably come from forest conversion. A high proportion will have steep slopes and will be in zones with high rainfall, so the water erosion risk will be high unless suitable management techniques are adopted (00F1).

Seiler and Crutzen (1980) estimate that (tropical?) forestlands are converted to grazing lands at the rate of 60,000 km2/ year, mostly in Latin America (86V1). Houghton et al (1983) estimate a similar value (86V1). An estimated 2 million km2 of forestlands have been converted to grazing land in the past 30 years; 7 million km2 of forestland has been converted to grazing lands during all of human history (86V1).

Cleared tropical forestland can sustain 4 cows/ km2 on average, and the average lifetime of a ranch is 2-7 years before it must be abandoned due to weed-growth, erosion and nutrient loss (84G1). After 7-10 years of beef cattle grazing, torrential rains and overgrazing turn the former rainforest's nutrient-poor soil into eroded wastelands (Ref. 8 of Ref. (83N1)). Others have estimated 5-10 years as the average lifetime on a cattle ranch on tropical rainforest soils (About 2-3 years is the average lifetime for croplands converted from tropical rainforest before they must be fallowed for about 20 years to regain their original soil fertility).

The UN estimates that the world converted 940,000 km2 of forestland to other land uses in the 20th century. Developing countries lost 1,300,000 km2 while industrial nations gained 360,000 km2 of forestland as a result of abandoned agricultural areas (e.g. potato monocultures in New England and cotton monocultures in the southeastern US) being reclaimed by forests (02U1).

Reductions in net deforestation (or gains in forest area) in developing and industrialized countries were mainly due to significant increases in forest plantations and the succession of forests on abandoned agricultural lands, e.g. the southern US (01F1).

The Earth's tropical forests were once 40% rainforest and 60% dry forest. Today, agriculture and anthropogenic fires have essentially obliterated (tropical) dry forests (87J1).

Ref. (80N1) argues that (tropical) rainforest destruction is not caused by food shortages bought on by over-population, but land-clearing for cash (export) crops and cattle for first-world consumption. This argument seems to be contradicted by the fact that 80% of tropical deforestation is for fuel wood (FAO data) (86M1). In addition, 250 million third-world residents rely on shifting cultivation on 3 million km2 of forestland (including fallow) (80S1), (80U1), and shifting cultivation is practiced on 20% of tropical moist forests (Sommer, 1976) (80U1).

Efforts to save most of the world's (tropical) rainforests are doomed to failure and should be abandoned, a group of European scientists said in a report in New Scientist magazine. Scientists at the European Commission's Joint Research Center in Italy gave that bleak outlook. The research team of 12 experts in tropical forests said there was no hope of stopping deforestation by logging companies and farmers in major (tropical) rainforest regions such as Indonesia and much of the Brazilian Amazon (Reuters [10/28/98]). Temperate rainforests, e.g. in Chile and Canada, are in an equally precarious position.

Tropical forests have lost half of their original expanse in the past 50 years, the fastest vegetation change of this magnitude in human history (95M2).

Ref. (80J1) cites a NAS (Norman Myers) estimate that 245,000 km2 of tropical forests are converted to other uses yearly. This may be too high. Ref. (96N1) indicates that, during the 1980s, about 35,000 km2 of tropical forestland were converted to other uses each year.

Some 55% of global deforestation is caused by slash-and-burn agriculture. Logging accounts for 20% of global deforestation. Roads and infrastructure construction account for 15%, and cattle ranching accounts for 10%. (1997 NASA images) p. 205 (Mark Hertsgaard, Earth Odyssey: Around the World in Search of Our Environmental Future, Broadway Books [12/98]). Logging is not usually considered deforestation in the sense of a change in land-use.

The FAO (1995b) determined that, between 1980-90, 920,500 km2 of closed tropical forests underwent change: 89,700 km2 became open forests; 92,700 km2 became long-fallow shifting cultivation; 91,700 km2 became fragmented forests; 25,300 km2 became shrubs; 215,700 km2 became short-fallow; 347,900 km2 became other land cover; 39,500 km2 became forest plantations; and 17,800 km2 are now covered by water (in dam backwaters) (96N1).

About 170,000 km2 of the world's closed forest were deforested and converted to other land uses in 1987 (75,000 km2 in 1981) (p. 7 of Ref. (90W1)).

Tropical rainforests are vanishing about 50% faster than previously estimated (202,000 km2/ year vs. 113,000 km2/ year) according to a World Resources Institute Report based on 1987 data (90H2).

The rate of conversion of forestland to urban uses is estimated to be about 40,0000 km2/ year, based on an analysis in a companion document to this review of deforestation (Topsoil Loss -- Causes, Effects and Implications). This analysis concludes that global forest loss (and grazing-land loss) to urbanization is about 1%/ decade. For lack of better information, it seems reasonable to assume that this rate applies equally well to both tropical- and temperate forests. This assumption may be suspect because temperate urbanization is primarily economic-growth-driven, while tropical urbanization is primarily population-growth-driven.

The FAO estimates that forest cover in the world's industrialized (developed) countries increased by 200,000 km2 (2.7%) between 1980-95 ((97F1), p. 18). (13,300 km2/ year).

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Part [F2] ~ Africa ~

Madagascar's traditional slash and burn agriculture is called "tavy." It involves converting tropical rainforests into rice fields; thereby exhausting the soil and leaving only scrub vegetation, alien grasses, eroded hillsides, and the constant threat of landslides. Forestland is freely available for clearing, so there is no incentive to manage it conservatively (07R1).

Madagascar has lost 90% of its forests, and each year it loses 1% of what is left (07R1).

Some 60% of the tropical forest areas cleared in (sub-Saharan?) Africa between 1990-2000 were converted into permanent agricultural smallholdings (UNEP, third Global Environment Outlook report (GEO-3)).

Forested land in Sub-Saharan Africa was converted to agricultural uses at increasing rates over 1981-90, and such changes accounted for 25% of the changes in forest cover during that period (FAO data) (95M3).

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Part [F3] ~ Latin America ~

South America suffered the largest net loss of forest area during 2000-2005 - about 43,000 km2 per year (05F1).

South America lost 370,000 km2 of forest during the 1990s (02U1).

The Amazon rainforest is disappearing because of a growing appetite for farmland. About 10,000 square miles (26,000 km2) vanished during the 12 months ending 8/1/02, vs. 7,000 square miles (18,100 km2) over the same period ending 8/1/01. The advance of agricultural and pastureland and the ongoing paving of roads (urbanization in general?) are the main reasons for the destruction. Cattle ranchers and farmers have been pushing into the Mato Grosso and southern Para state of Brazil. Brazil aims at paving 4,000 miles of dirt roads through the Amazon forest. This is pending reviews, but a third of the work has been completed (" Amazon Destruction in Brazil Speeding Up", Associated Press (6/26/03)).

A 1979 survey found that deforested lands that are now too degraded to support agriculture now cover 23% of Panama (82C1).

The average life of a Brazilian cattle ranch (typically created by conversion of tropical rainforest) is 2-7 years before it must be abandoned due to soil deterioration (84G1).

In 1986, virtually all Amazonian ranches (typically created by conversion of tropical rainforest) established prior to 1978 had been abandoned (86L1).

Since the 1950s, Peru cleared 85,000 km2 of Amazon forestland for cattle grazing and cropland. Most of this grazing land is now abandoned. Today the area produces 9000 tons of meat/ year -- 5.7% of Peru's consumption (Ref. 27 of Ref. (95D1)).

Ranching, primarily for export beef, has indirectly leveled half of Central America's forest since 1960 (89D2).

Over 60% of Mexico's original rainforest have been converted to cattle grazing (p. 355 of Ref. (91J1)).

During 1970-1990, Latin Americans converted over 200,000 km2 of tropical moist forest to cattle pasture (100,000 in the Brazilian Amazon, 15,000 in the Colombian Amazon, and 5000 in the Peruvian Amazon) (91D1).

Ranching accounts for 60% of tropical forest loss in Mexico (97R1).

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Part [F4] ~ Southeast Asia ~

Deforestation in Indonesia, followed by bad agricultural practices, has resulted in 150,000 km2 being covered with worthless Imperata Cylindrica grasslands (84G1).

A UN report of February, 2007 found that all lowland forests on Indonesia's Borneo and Sumatra islands could be lost by 2022 at the current logging rate of 2.8 million ha./ year (28,000 km2/ year) (07W1).

Indonesia has over 160,000 km2 of non-productive land that is incapable of supporting agriculture or forests without major rehabilitation (Ref. 8 of Ref. (88P1)).

According to a 1999 report by the World Bank, 75% of forest fires on the most endangered edge of the Amazon rainforest are carried out by large ranchers, not peasant farmers, who have often received the most blame (UN Wire [4/19/99]).

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Part [F5] ~ North America ~

Wear (1998) (in (99N1)) estimates that 20-25,000 km2 of (additional?) forestland in the southern US will be urbanized during 2000 to 2030.

Part [F6] ~ Central Asia ~

Nearly 50% of the logged permafrost in Siberia has reverted to swampland that is incapable of supporting trees (This is presumably due to rising water tables in areas where trees are no longer available to transpire moisture. The same process occurs in the hardwood forests of the northeastern US.) (95A2).

Nepal's forest area: 34,000 km2 (being depleted at over 3%/ year for fuel and cattle feed) (80R3).

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Section [G] ~ ILLEGAL TIMBER HARVESTS AND CONVERSIONS OF FOREST LANDS ~ [G1]~ Global, [G2]~ Southeast Asia, [G3]~ Central Asia, [G4]~ Eastern Asia, [G5]~ Latin America, [G6]~ Oceania, [G7]~ Africa, [G8]~ Asian Sub-Continent, [G9]~ North America,

Part [G1] ~ Global ~

Ref. (06F1) includes estimates of illegal logging rates as a percentage of total production in 17 countries, from Bolivia to Myanmar and Vietnam. At least 2/3 of those 17 countries have illegal logging rates of at least 50%. In Indonesia, 70-80% of all logging was illegal. In Bolivia it was 80%. In Cambodia it was estimated at 90% (06F1).

The World Bank believes the illicit global trade in timber costs governments (worldwide) about $15 billion/ year in lost revenues and taxes (07W1).

Illegal logging has devastated forests around the globe, reducing incentives to invest in sustainable forestry and accumulating losses of $15 billion annually (03U2).

In a study of 120 countries, high deforestation countries (those that lost 10+% of their forest cover during 1980-85 -- 20 countries including Haiti, Iraq, Nicaragua, South Africa, Sri Lanka) are 3 times more likely to be governed by a military leader, 4 times more likely to experience political assassinations, 2 times more likely to witness general strikes, riots, revolutions and changes in government (94U1).

Ref. (94D1) cites numerous examples of the influence of political corruption on global deforestation.

A significant cause of forest loss is illegal logging. Estimates suggest up to 80% of logging is illegal in the Brazilian Amazon and 73% of logging is illegal in Indonesia. Figures are similar throughout the tropics. FOE (Friends of the Earth) has concluded that 50% of all timber entering the EU may be illegally sourced, and in the UK the rate is 60% (" Why the Earth Summit Matters", Guardian UK [5/19/02]).

China imports of timber increased from US$6 billion in 1996 to US$16 billion in 2005. The timber came principally from Russia's Far East, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and Thailand. China does not currently distinguish between legally and illegally produced timber imports (06F1).

A report from World Resources Institute (WRI) and World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) warns of the destruction of tropical forests by multi-national companies. This report has been suppressed for 3 years by the European Commission and WWF. The report originally named companies who would bribe or bully their way to lucrative logging concessions, but it has been watered down because WWF feared that some of the governments concerned, particularly Malaysia, would close down WWF offices. Many of the companies named were Asian. Investments are concentrated in countries with generally weak or outdated environmental and social laws and little enforcement capacity. Many of the countries suffer severe economic difficulties with large foreign debts, high inflation and unemployment. Decisions are often made by a small group of powerful people or clans within the government that see forests as a source of personal revenue. The logging causes careless damage to the surrounding forest. The roads built allow entry of commercial hunts, farmers, miners and others who cause further environmental damage. The companies frequently end up in violent clashes with local people and native tribes. The main donors to these countries - the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, Japan, the EU, France, Germany, Britain and the US, fail to enforce their own rules to promote forest conservation and responsible management, then induce countries to sell their forests for a quick cash return to pay off debts to Western countries. The authors of the report recommended an end to EU aid and a moratorium on all further logging in 11 countries - Cameroon, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo in central Africa; Belize, Surinam and Guyana in the Caribbean rim; and Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific rim. The moratorium would last until bribery scandals are investigated and proper environmental standards enforced (The Guardian (UK) (6/1/00)).

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Part [G2] ~ Southeast Asia ~

On paper, Myanmar (Burma) supplies less than 10% of China's log imports, but industry workers say the number must be at least twice as high (01P1).

Domestic wood supply in Indonesia was documented at 20 million m3 in 2000, while demand stood at 60 million m3. Thus legal supplies of wood fell short of demand by up to 40 million m3/ year. Illegal logging filled the gap - accounting for almost 70% of wood supply. All told, illegal logging alone has eliminated 100,000 km2 of Indonesia's forest cover (02F1).

In Indonesia, commercial interests (many with personal and financial ties to the president) deliberately set fires to burn 20,000 km2 of forest in 1997 to clear land for palm oil-, pulp- and rice plantations, or to cover up the tracks of illegal logging (98A2).

The world's eight largest industrial countries, plus the rest of the EU, import 280 million m3 of timber and timber products per year. This accounts for 74% of the world's timber imports. Most of this wood comes from countries where illegal logging is the norm. In 2000, the US imported over $450 million worth of timber from Indonesia, which, given Indonesia's illegal logging rate, could represent $330 million worth of timber from illegal sources (01C1).

The Cambodian government told aid donors it was terminating its contract with Global Witness, for defaming the country and inciting violence. It was hired in 1999 to document the regulation of companies holding logging concessions. But in their reports the group accused Hun Sen's government of ignoring illegal logging by companies with financial and familial links to officials responsible for overseeing forest use ("Cambodia Faces Loss of Aid After Expelling Monitors", Push newsfeed (1/7/03)).

Poverty drives farmers and other residents to cut trees with little regard for the law in the Philippines. About 40% of Nakar town relied on illegal logging, and legal loggers are also responsible for much of the damage often cutting trees outside permitted areas while corrupt officials turn a blind eye. Under a logging ban imposed in the mid-1990s, licensed loggers in the Philippines are only allowed to cut trees in areas that have more than 20% forest cover. But forest cover has shrunk to less than 18% mostly in the islands of Palawan and Mindanao, from 64% in 1920. The Philippine experience mirrors the situation in Indonesia, where corruption has gone hand-in-hand with the disappearance of rainforest. Indonesia has lost more than 75% of its forests over the past few decades, leaving only 148 million acres (600,000 km2) ("Philippine Storm Deaths Blamed on Logging; Forests That Prevented Slides Have Been Cleared", MSNBC.com (12/01/04)).

The amount lost to the national treasury of Cambodia as a result of illegal logging alone is equal to the entire national budget (98A1). Forest Department officials who tried to implement legally mandated forest reforms have been dismissed, intimidated and murdered (98A1).

Documents obtained by Global Witness show that the Cambodian government is in the process of allocating all of Cambodia's remaining forest in 19 massive concessions to mainly foreign companies. The Khmer Rouge continues to benefit from much of this trade, a trade that the Cambodian government is pursuing against the country's constitution (96G2). Although a timber cutting and export ban is supposedly in force, the Cambodian government continue to award logging concessions. In addition to 11 existing concessions the Cambodian government is in the process of awarding 17 more. If all these concessions receive final approval, the Cambodian government will have allocated all of its remaining forests -- over 35% of its total land area -- to mainly foreign companies (96G2).

In Indonesia in the early 1980s, the overall area of timber concessions granted by the government exceeded the official area designated at "production forest" (00P1).

Forest depletion in Thailand and Indonesia from the 1960s to the 1990s may be attributed, to a large extent, to military dominance of these governments (00P1). President Suharto of Indonesia handed out timber licenses to loyal military officers to improve military budgets. By 1978, the military controlled 12 timber companies (00P1). Indonesia's armed forces own 51% of International Timber Corp. of Indonesia, while Suharto's son owes 34% (00P1). Indonesia's Forestry minister said (in 1989) "In Indonesia, the forest belongs to the state and not the people. They have no right to compensation" (Ref. 26 of Ref. (00P1)).

The Indonesian government declared in 1967 that it had sole legal jurisdiction over the nation's forests -- 74% of Indonesia's land area. One result was that the traditional rights of millions of people were handed over to a small number of commercial firms and state enterprises (98A2).

Illegal logging has become rampant in Indonesia, even in national parks, on a scale that exceeds the volume of legal logging (Thomas Walton, Derek Holmes, International Herald Tribune (1/25/00)).

A friend of Indonesia's President Soeharto's second son accumulated 55,000 km2 of forest concessions worth more than $5 billion by the early 1990s (98R1).

About 70% of the timber harvest in Indonesia was taken illegally in some provinces (93D2).

The politics of logging in Borneo and Kalimantan (in Indonesia) are described in detail in Ref. (94B1). President Suharto gave timber concessions to top military officers who were loyal to him in the bloody 1967 coup that bought him to power (94B1).

Half the timber concessions in Sarawak (in Malaysia) are owned by family and friends of Abdul Taib Mahmud, Sarawak's current chief minister and his uncle, Abdul Rahman Yakub, the past minister (91R1).

Congress in the Philippines is packed with loggers and members of logging families (Ref. 59 of Ref. (93D2)).

The illegal timber trade in the Philippines may be 4 times the size of the legal trade (Ref. 61 of Ref. (93D2)).

The liquidation of 90% of the Philippines' primary forests during the Marcos regime in the 1960s and 1970s made a few hundred families $42 billion richer, but impoverished 18 million forest dwellers (98A1) (98A2).

In the late 1980s the Thai government banned all commercial logging, and revoke all 301 logging concessions (90W1) (90R3). Enforcement of this ban has been lethally dangerous to enforcement officials, and compromised by bribes to public officials (Wall Street Journal (10/7/93)).

Hundreds of sawmills operate without government approval in Sumatra (in Indonesia) (05B1). 70-85% of all timber cut in Indonesia is harvested by people operating without government permits (05B1). Sumatra's national parks have about the only stands of timber left in Sumatra (05B1).

In Laos, where the volume of illegal logging is the equivalent of at least one sixth of the legal harvest, the army openly cuts forests ("The Fight Against Illegal Loggers," The Economist (4/3/99)) and (01C1).

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Part [G3] ~ Central Asia ~

Forests in Russia's Far East are at risk of complete destruction within 5 years because of illegal logging. The Group of Seven industrialized countries, as well as South Korea and China, import illegal timber resources from the region (World Wide Fund for Nature statement (2/27/02)).

Increased demand from Asia coupled with restrictions or outright bans on logging of natural forests in some Asian countries have contributed to unsustainable (often illegal) logging in Africa and Latin America (03M1).

Some 57% of the logs bought into China originate in Russia, where poor law enforcement, corruption, and the abandonment of local timber-processing plants have led people to illegally cut trees for companies that send raw materials to China for processing. At least 20% of Russia's timber harvest is taken illegally or drastically violates existing legislation (02X1)

Forests in Russia's Far East are at risk of complete destruction within 5 years because of illegal logging. The Group of Seven industrialized countries, as well as South Korea and China, import illegal timber resources from the region (World Wide Fund for Nature statement (2/27/02)).

In Russia, logging may be occurring on as much as 120,000 km2/ year, vs. 20,000 km2 of legal logging (98A2).

Part [G4] ~ Eastern Asia ~

Illegal timber harvests in China remove 4,500 km2 of forest annually (Ref. 40 of Ref. (95R2)).

Part [G5] ~ Latin America ~

In Brazil, an estimated 80% of logging is illegal (01C1).

The Brazilian government estimates that 80% of the timber harvested in the Amazon violates the law (98A2).

Agents for IBAMA, Brazil's environmental protection agency, have been shot at, threatened, and thrown out of town while trying to investigate illegal logging in the Amazon. Politicians and bureaucrats have run into similar pressure. Implementation of an environmental-crimes law enacted last year has been postponed for six years, and a temporary ban on Amazon clearing permits -- ordered in February -- was lifted in April (UN Wire [4/19/99]). The permits "make little difference" anyway. Last year, none of the top 10 burners of the Amazon had a permit. And only 20% of the fines imposed in 1996-97 were ever collected, according to the Belem-based Institute for Man and the Environment in Amazonia (Laurie Goering, Chicago Tribune [5/13/99]).

Over the past 5 years Venezuela has ranked among the top 10 countries with the highest deforestation rates. Between 1982-95, Venezuela suffered an annual deforestation of over 2600 km2/ year. Certain areas were devastated with several states losing a third or more of their wooded regions. The main causes of deforestation are agricultural (including grazing) expansion and urban developments ("Mision Arbol: Reforesting Venezuela," Venezuelanalysis.com [6/26/06].)

The Brazilian Environment Ministry stopped all forest clearing permits one day after it announced the deforestation rate in the Amazon jumped 30% from 1997. Preliminary data shows 6,500 square miles cleared in 1998, mostly from illegal logging and clearing by small farmers (Reuters [2/11/99]).

A study by Brazil's Department of Strategic Affairs shows that 80% of timber taken from the Brazilian Amazon rainforest comes from illegal sources (98A1) (Defenders of Wildlife, GREENLines Issue #392 [6/2/97]).

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Part [G6] ~ Oceania ~

Environmental activists said they had uncovered the biggest smuggling racket with huge shipments of logs shipped from Papua New Guinea to China. They said the illegal trade was threatening the last intact tropical forests in the Asia-Pacific region. International criminal syndicates were behind looting merbau trees - a hardwood used mainly for flooring, that was being taken from Papua at a rate of 300,000 m3 of logs each month to feed China's timber industry. More than 70% of Indonesia's forests have been lost. The government banned the export of logs in 2001, but that has not stopped the trade. Collusion with Indonesia's military was apparent, activists said. The armed forces have denied the institution was engaged in the trade, but conceded rogue elements could take part. Indonesia's new president has pledged to crack down on illegal logging. Local communities receive around $10/ m3 felled on their land; they fetch $270/ m3 in China and up to $2700 in North America. With forest cover at around 70%, New Guinea contains the last tracts of undisturbed forest in the Asia-Pacific region ("Activists Detail Allegations of Illegal Indonesia Logging; Groups Track Shipments to China Over Recent Years", MSNBC.com (2/17/05)).

A study of the enforcement of national forestry laws in Papua New Guinea found that foreign timber companies were "roaming the countryside with the self-assurance of robber barons, bribing politicians, creating social disharmony and ignoring laws in order to gain access to the last remnants of the province's valuable timber (Ref. 60 of Ref. (93D2)).

Part [G7] ~ Africa ~

During 1990-1995, the share of Cameroon (in West Africa) logs going to Asia grew from 7% to 50%. Only half of the logging companies in Cameroon are licensed, and among these companies, violations such as felling trees smaller than the legal size and cutting outside concession boundaries are common even though illegal (01J1).

The World Bank estimated, in 2001, that charcoal consumption in Malawi (Sub-Saharan Africa) was twice what the woodlands could produce on a sustainable basis (05U1).

One third of Ghana's logs are harvested illegally (98A1) (98A2).

Part [G8] ~ Asian Sub-Continent ~

Using detailed studies Jones (1995) points out, for India, that 10 times more fuelwood was collected than officially reported (96N1).

Part [G9] ~ North America ~

In the US in the early 1990s, timber companies were discovered stealing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trees from federal lands annually, sometimes with the knowledge of USFS employees. The lawsuit recovered only a fraction of the timber's value (98A2).

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Section [H] ~ FOREST FIRE DATA AND FOREST SOIL LOSS DATA ~

Within boreal forests, detailed records for the US and Canada reveal that the annual forest area burned has more than doubled in the past 30 years (99K1).

Research in Sarawak (in Indonesia?) concluded that soil loss from logged areas was over 10,000 tons/ km2/ year, as opposed to 10 ton/ km2/ year from primary forest (96G2).

The 40% reduction in forest cover in the Himalayan foothills since the 1950s has resulted in irrigation systems in Uttar Pradesh in India being choked by 6 Gt. of topsoil (84G1).

Section [I] ~ CLIMATIC AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CONVERTING FOREST LANDS TO OTHER USES ~

Evidence from across West Africa indicates that deforestation has lowered rainfall, increased ground temperatures, dried up rivers and thus has spread deserts (90M1). (About 650,000 km2 of West Africa have been overrun by deserts during 1940 to 1990 (90M1).)

Deforestation in Bangladesh and India has caused the increasing frequency and force of floods. In the past, major floods occurred only every 50 years. By the 1980's they've began occurring every 4 years. Between the late 1960s and late 1980s, India's flood-prone areas grew from 243,000 km2 to 575 million km2 (93U6).

Deforestation and soil erosion were factors in almost every civilization collapse studied by Jared Diamond in his book (04D1).

A 2001 survey by China's State Forestry Administration says 28% of China's land mass has been overtaken by desert, with 18% (of China's land mass) being decimated by effects of overgrazing and deforestation (China Daily reports (1/31/02)).

One km2 of diversified agriculture in Brazil provides 1800 jobs. One km2 of land at the Bahia Sul Celulos monoculture tree plantation in the same region of Brazil provides 2 jobs (WorldWatch, 11(2) (1998)).

Ten km2 of diversified farming in Hawaii provide 400 jobs. Ten km2 of monoculture pulp plantation provides 6 jobs (WorldWatch, 11(2) (1998)). Also, pulp plantation output is typically mainly for export, while diversified agriculture outputs are typically for local consumption.

In Hawaii, a 10-km2 pulp plantation would produce 40-60 jobs, while the same amount of land used for diversified agriculture would create over 400 jobs (98M1).

Economic return from cattle ranching on cleared rainforest = $2470/ km2/ year for the first year, and $0/ km2/ year after 7 years. Economic returns from rubber-tapping = $1235/ km2/ year forever (early 1980s data) (89D2).

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Section [J] ~ SHIFTING CULTIVATION IN TROPICAL RAINFORESTS ~

(Note: More data on this issue can be found in Chapter 4, Section (C) "Forest Land Degradation: A Global Perspective" found in this website.)

Less than 10% of the world's existing tropical rainforests grow on soils of the type that can support significant population densities. Some data on supportable population densities on the remaining 90% of tropical soils follow.

Limitations of this nature could explain the demise of the ancient Mayan empire in Central America (56B1). Ref. 10 of Ref. (84G1) describes a successful procedure for using poor tropical soils for agriculture, but heavy, skilled applications of (chemical) fertilizer and high crop prices are required. In recent years it has been found that legume crops, such as soybeans, can be grown on poor soils of tropical rainforests with heavy applications of chemical fertilizers, particularly in Brazil. The net result of this is liable to be a huge reduction in the global biomass inventory and growing scarcity of tropical wood supplies.

Fallow periods of 20 years following about three years of cropping appear to be the most widely accepted figure for fallowing croplands in low-productivity soils in tropical rain forests. Shorter fallow periods translate into lower crop productivity, which could result in even shorter fallow periods. Human pressures on the land are translating into shorter fallow periods and hence increasing degrees of non-sustainability on vast areas of the tropics. Some data on this trend follow.

Note that the above data are somewhat old and so are of purely historic value. Present-day fallow periods are liable to be less.

Data on the length of the cropping cycle between 20-year fallow periods are given below.

A carrying capacity of 10 people/ km2 implies a carrying capacity of the 3 million km2 of land under shifting cultivation of 30 million people. (Other data indicate a tropical rainforest area affected by shifting cultivation of 94,700 km2 (FAO, 1981 Landsat data) (Area burned annually is much less.) (91J2).) Compare this to the 1980 population of shifting cultivators of 250 million (80U1). If all tropical forestland with poor soil (90% of 17.6 million km2 of open- plus closed forest) were devoted to shifting cultivation, the carrying capacity of this land would be 158 million people. This is 63% of the 1980 population of shifting cultivators, and a far smaller percentage of today's population of shifting cultivators. Eventually the combination of falling productivity, population growth, and conversions of tropical forest to grazing lands and forest plantations forces ever increasing numbers of shifting cultivators to migrate to the slums ringing most large urban areas in tropical climates and from there into the "informal" economy where survival is a significant challenge. There is clearly nothing that is sustainable in the modern-day process of shifting cultivation. In theory, shifting cultivation can be perfectly sustainable. The problem is not with the theory but with the ever-growing populations of people imposing ever-increasing pressures on the land to produce. Ever-increasing degrees of urbanization in the developing world probably will not help, since the overwhelming bulk of these farmers-turned-city-people will join the "informal" economy.

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Section [K] ~ SUMMARY OF KEY SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES AFFECTING THE WORLD'S FORESTS ~

The more important sustainability problems associated with the world's forest lands are summarized below.

More data are given in "Forest Land Degradation: A Global Perspective," found on this website.

If one prefers a more positive approach to the issue of the sustainability of the world's forests and is willing to ignore the concerns raised in the above list, one can consult an FAO study on the future of the world's forests out to the year 2030. That FAO study (03M1) appears to be unaware of a number of important issues. Among them:

The earlier 1995 FAO study (95A5) predicted "a nearly tripling of consumption of forest products in developing countries over the next two decades. In developed countries, consumption is predicted to somewhat less than double over the next 2 decades. These 1995 projections imply an industrial roundwood consumption of 2.7 billion m3 by 2010 (95A5). The most recent projections of FAO's Global Forest Products Model estimate that global consumption of industrial roundwood in 2030 will increase by about 60% on current (2003) consumption (03M1).

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